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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to NYJ 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.88 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model