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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 43

New York Jets 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 5-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to KC 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.90 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model