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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 59

New York Jets 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 5-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to KC 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.47 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP