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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to LV 24, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.71 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model