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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

LV
32.6%
LAC
67.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.126 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 20
–
LAC 27
Projected margin: LAC by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

LV

Curtis Bolton LB Out Knee
Maxx Crosby DE Questionable Knee
Jimmy Garoppolo QB Questionable Concussion
Nate Hobbs CB Questionable Ankle
Malcolm Koonce DE Questionable Groin
Roderic Teamer S Questionable Achilles

LAC

Corey Linsley C Out Illness
J.T. Woods S Out Illness
Derwin James S Doubtful Hamstring
Deane Leonard CB Doubtful Hamstring
Austin Ekeler RB Doubtful Ankle
Joey Bosa DE Questionable Hamstring
Alohi Gilman S Questionable Heel

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 17
–
LAC 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:44 TD LAC (10:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – LAC 6
  • Q1 00:48 TD LV (:48) 4-A.O'Connell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – LAC 7
  • Q2 10:45 FG LAC (10:45) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LV 7 – LAC 10
  • Q2 07:23 TD LAC (7:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – LAC 16
  • Q2 03:06 TD LAC (3:06) 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – LAC 23
  • Q3 04:54 FG LV (4:54) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – LAC 24
  • Q4 04:04 TD LV (4:04) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 16 – LAC 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:42) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to LAC 19, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at LAC 18.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:40) 16-J.Scott punts 23 yards to LV 36, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (10:45) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (3:06) 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:15) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to LAC 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 28 for 12 yards (5-D.Deablo).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:19) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to LV 24, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (:29) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to LAC 15, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 21 for 6 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:29) 6-A.Cole punts 70 yards to LAC 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-33-R.Teamer.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:27) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to LV 48, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 78%

    (7:47) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 17-D.Adams to LAC 20 for 12 yards (26-A.Samuel, 52-K.Mack).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (4:54) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:38) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 39, Center-47-J.Harris. 3-D.Carter to LV 40 for 1 yard (87-S.Fehoko).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (4:04) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (3:34) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 34 for no gain (98-M.Crosby).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (2:47) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at LAC 3 for 19 yards (43-M.Davis).