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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(:29) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to LAC 15, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 21 for 6 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.80 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model