Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

(12:29) 6-A.Cole punts 70 yards to LAC 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-33-R.Teamer.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model