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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 34 for no gain (98-M.Crosby).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.18 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model