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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to LAC 19, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at LAC 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model