Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(5:40) 16-J.Scott punts 23 yards to LV 36, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.01 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model