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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 46

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to MIA 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.20 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP