4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

MIA
47.7%
BUF
52.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: +0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.298 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 24
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

MIA

Jaelan Phillips LB Out Oblique
Salvon Ahmed RB Questionable Groin
Terron Armstead T Questionable back, ankle, knee
DeShon Elliott S Questionable Ankle
Connor Williams C Questionable Groin

BUF

Jordan Poyer S Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 20
–
BUF 48

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:46 TD BUF (10:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 06:35 TD MIA (6:35) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BUF 7
  • Q1 01:15 TD BUF (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIA 7 – BUF 13
  • Q2 12:52 TD MIA (12:52) 28-D.Achane left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – BUF 14
  • Q2 10:07 TD BUF (10:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [2-B.Chubb]. MIA 14 – BUF 20
  • Q2 03:12 TD BUF (3:12) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Illegal Contact, declined. MIA 14 – BUF 27
  • Q2 01:44 FG BUF (1:44) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIA 14 – BUF 31
  • Q3 09:34 TD MIA (9:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 0-B.Berrios for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – BUF 31
  • Q3 05:25 FG BUF (5:25) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIA 20 – BUF 34
  • Q3 03:04 TD BUF (3:04) (Shotgun) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – BUF 40
  • Q4 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – BUF 47

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:50) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to BUF 27, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 44%

    (5:37) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to MIA 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (3:59) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to BUF 41, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 71%

    (1:44) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (5:25) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 41%

    (:44) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 45 for -8 yards (91-E.Oliver). BUF-27-T.White was injured during the play. He is Out. T.White taken off field on cart.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (11:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at BUF 17 for -11 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:19) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIA 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 34 for 4 yards (33-S.Neal). PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 30. Return credited to end of kick (spot of penalty enforcement).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 18 at the 37
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 66%

    (5:36) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 11-C.Wilson to BUF 21 for 16 yards (58-M.Milano).