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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 86

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to BUF 41, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.87 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 86, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 44, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP