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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 35

Buffalo Bills 28 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.41 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model