Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 31

(:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.38 EP
49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -2.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model