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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 20 – Buffalo Bills 41

What Actually Happened

(:44) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 45 for -8 yards (91-E.Oliver). BUF-27-T.White was injured during the play. He is Out. T.White taken off field on cart.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.55 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model