Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 48 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIA 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 34 for 4 yards (33-S.Neal). PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 30. Return credited to end of kick (spot of penalty enforcement).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.43 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model