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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 37

Miami Dolphins 20 – Buffalo Bills 48

What Actually Happened

(5:36) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 11-C.Wilson to BUF 21 for 16 yards (58-M.Milano).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.47 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP