Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 77

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Houston Texans 13

(10:46) 3-B.Wing punts 44 yards to HOU 33, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.46 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model