4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

PIT
46.1%
HOU
53.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Kenny Pickett (PIT): -0.052 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

PIT

James Daniels G Out Groin
Pressley Harvin P Out right Hamstring

HOU

Josh Jones G Out Hand
Denzel Perryman LB Out Hand
Tavierre Thomas CB Out Hand
Laremy Tunsil T Out Knee
Michael Deiter C Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 6
–
HOU 30

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:58 TD HOU (8:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – HOU 6
  • Q1 01:23 FG HOU (1:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner. PIT 0 – HOU 10
  • Q2 12:13 FG HOU (12:13) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner. PIT 0 – HOU 13
  • Q2 00:04 FG HOU (:04) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner. PIT 0 – HOU 16
  • Q3 09:35 FG PIT (9:35) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing. PIT 3 – HOU 16
  • Q3 05:50 FG PIT (5:50) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing. PIT 6 – HOU 16
  • Q4 10:54 TD HOU (10:54) 26-D.Singletary pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-E.Roberts]. PIT 6 – HOU 22
  • Q4 03:46 TD HOU (3:46) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – HOU 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (1:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (15:00) 3-B.Wing punts 41 yards to HOU 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-N.Dell MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 32. 3-N.Dell to HOU 32 for no gain (51-Ni.Herbig).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (12:13) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:46) 3-B.Wing punts 44 yards to HOU 33, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 80%

    (7:09) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 47-A.Beck [90-T.Watt].

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 24%

    (4:35) 3-B.Wing punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:06) 16-T.Zentner punts 42 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 15 for 2 yards (19-X.Hutchinson).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:53) 3-B.Wing punts 52 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-N.Dell to HOU 22 for 14 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 93%

    (9:35) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:49) 16-T.Zentner punts 38 yards to PIT 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-C.Austin to HOU 46 for 7 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (5:50) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:50) 16-T.Zentner punts 34 yards to PIT 24, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 70%

    (1:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett sacked at HOU 42 for -9 yards (52-J.Greenard). PIT-8-K.Pickett was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:10) 3-B.Wing punts 50 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.