Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 58

Houston Texans 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

(4:50) 16-T.Zentner punts 34 yards to PIT 24, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model