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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 5-J.Camarda punts 59 yards to NO 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 29 for 16 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model