4th & Data
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

TB
36.8%
NO
63.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: -0.152 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): -0.057 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TB 20
–
NO 24
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

TB

Jamel Dean CB Out Neck
SirVocea Dennis LB Out Hamstring
Calijah Kancey DT Out Calf
Derrek Pitts CB Out Hamstring
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Toe
Vita Vea DT Questionable Pectoral
Devin White LB Questionable Foot

NO

Paulson Adebo CB Out Hamstring
Jordan Howden S Out Finger
Cesar Ruiz G Out Concussion
Derek Carr QB Questionable right Shoulder
Foster Moreau TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 26
–
NO 9

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:23 FG NO (9:23) 19-B.Grupe 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. TB 0 – NO 3
  • Q2 05:25 TD TB (5:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. PENALTY on NO-93-N.Shepherd, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. TB 6 – NO 3
  • Q2 00:22 TD TB (:22) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 10-T.Palmer for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – NO 3
  • Q3 00:52 FG NO (:52) 19-B.Grupe 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. TB 14 – NO 6
  • Q4 13:35 FG TB (13:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 17 – NO 6
  • Q4 08:34 FG NO (8:34) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. TB 17 – NO 9
  • Q4 03:53 TD TB (3:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 83-D.Thompkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – NO 9
  • Q4 02:27 FG TB (2:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 26 – NO 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 58%

    (12:05) (Shotgun) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill up the middle to TB 39 for 2 yards (54-L.David; 9-J.Tryon).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

    (9:23) 19-B.Grupe 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 53%

    (5:27) 5-J.Camarda punts 27 yards to NO 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:30) 39-L.Hedley punts 36 yards to TB 47, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins. PENALTY on TB-51-J.Russell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 47. INJURY UPDATE: TB 23-R.Neal, concussion, OUT.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:41) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to NO 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 38%

    (14:17) 39-L.Hedley punts 36 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:17) 39-L.Hedley punts 52 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 15 for 7 yards (49-Z.Wood; 52-D.Jackson). PENALTY on NO-49-Z.Wood, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TB 15.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:57) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to NO 17, Center-97-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 46 for 29 yards (52-K.Britt, 41-K.Kieft). INJURY UPDATE: TB 13-M.Evans, hamstring, OUT.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 16 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 35%

    (11:30) 39-L.Hedley punts 38 yards to TB 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:09) 5-J.Camarda punts 59 yards to NO 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 29 for 16 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (:52) 19-B.Grupe 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 76%

    (13:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%

    (8:34) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NO 16 for -9 yards (50-V.Vea). FUMBLES (50-V.Vea) [50-V.Vea], RECOVERED by TB-90-L.Hall at NO 19.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (2:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.