4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 33

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model