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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 19

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 19-B.Grupe 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.30 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model