4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.81 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model