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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.69 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP