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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 4 at the 37
Detroit Lions 14 – Carolina Panthers 7
What Actually Happened
(10:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 5-D.Montgomery.
The Three Options
GO
+1.00 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.85 EP
- 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP
KICK
+0.52 EP
- 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
- 32% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
