Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.240 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.303 EPA/dropback
- DET offense: +0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- CAR offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- DET defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- DET on 3 more days rest than CAR
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
CAR
DET
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:50 TD DET (9:50) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – DET 6
- Q1 04:59 TD DET (4:59) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – DET 13
- Q2 12:52 TD CAR (12:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – DET 14
- Q2 03:55 TD DET (3:55) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DET 20
- Q2 03:29 TD DET (3:29) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DET 27
- Q2 00:10 FG CAR (:10) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 10 – DET 28
- Q4 15:00 TD DET (15:00) 16-J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – DET 34
- Q4 11:57 TD CAR (11:57) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 17-D.Chark for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – DET 35
- Q4 07:32 TD DET (7:32) 13-C.Reynolds left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 17 – DET 41
- Q4 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 23 – DET 42
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 50%
(11:07) 10-J.Hekker punts 25 yards to DET 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-54-K.Grugier-Hill.
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Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 68%
(10:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 5-D.Montgomery.
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Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 29Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 83%
(7:56) 5-D.Montgomery left end pushed ob at CAR 26 for 3 yards (42-S.Franklin).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%
(:10) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 16 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(6:26) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to DET 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-21-J.Chinn.
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Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(5:35) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to CAR 13, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 16 for 3 yards (57-A.Pittman).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 19 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(4:38) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to DET 49, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.