Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 68

Detroit Lions 28 – Carolina Panthers 10

(5:35) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to CAR 13, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 16 for 3 yards (57-A.Pittman).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.07 EP
54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model