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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 93

Carolina Panthers 10 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to DET 49, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -3.82 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.85 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 93, worth -5.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model