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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 10-J.Hekker punts 25 yards to DET 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-54-K.Grugier-Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.62 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model