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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 1

Carolina Panthers 17 – Detroit Lions 42

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 1, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model