Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 79

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 10-B.Robbins punts 59 yards to ARI 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 36 for 16 yards (56-D.Harper). PENALTY on CIN-56-D.Harper, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model