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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2023-10-08 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CIN
48.4%
ARI
51.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Joshua Dobbs (ARI): -0.016 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CIN 22
–
ARI 23
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CIN

Akeem Davis-Gaither LB Out Knee
Chidobe Awuzie CB Questionable Back
Trey Hendrickson DE Questionable Back
Cam Taylor-Britt CB Questionable Concussion
Tee Higgins WR Questionable Ribs

ARI

Jonathan Ledbetter DE Out Finger
Garrett Williams CB Out Knee
Will Hernandez G Questionable Back
Dennis Daley T Questionable Ankle
Josh Woods LB Questionable Ankle
Keaontay Ingram RB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 34
–
ARI 20

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:15 TD CIN (7:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 01:50 FG CIN (1:50) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. CIN 10 – ARI 0
  • Q2 12:30 TD ARI (12:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 2-M.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – ARI 6
  • Q2 08:31 TD ARI (8:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – ARI 13
  • Q2 01:30 TD CIN (1:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 0-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at ARI 11. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – ARI 14
  • Q3 13:47 TD CIN (13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 23 – ARI 14
  • Q3 07:39 TD ARI (7:39) 31-E.Demercado left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 24 – ARI 20
  • Q4 07:54 TD CIN (7:54) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 30 – ARI 20
  • Q4 06:36 FG CIN (6:36) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. CIN 34 – ARI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Irwin pushed ob at CIN 31 for 8 yards (33-A.Hamilton). PENALTY on ARI-32-J.Blount, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 31.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:03) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to CIN 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Irwin to ARI 48 for 28 yards (47-E.Turner, 12-B.Gillikin).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:55) 10-B.Robbins punts 59 yards to ARI 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 36 for 16 yards (56-D.Harper). PENALTY on CIN-56-D.Harper, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 36.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:36) 10-B.Robbins punts 48 yards to ARI 24, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 30 for 6 yards (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:12) 12-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 29 for 21 yards (32-J.Blount, 47-E.Turner).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (1:37) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to ARI 1 for no gain (22-K.Wallace, 52-V.Dimukeje).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:09) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 26 for 11 yards (52-V.Dimukeje; 83-G.Dortch).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 95%

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs right end to CIN 17 for -1 yards (57-G.Pratt).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%

    (6:36) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 57-G.Pratt at ARI 48. 57-G.Pratt to ARI 48 for no gain. CIN-57-G.Pratt was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 48%

    (3:23) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to ARI 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown. Penalty on ARI-63-T.Colon, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 78%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle.