Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Irwin pushed ob at CIN 31 for 8 yards (33-A.Hamilton). PENALTY on ARI-32-J.Blount, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model