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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 10-B.Robbins punts 48 yards to ARI 24, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 30 for 6 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model