4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 1

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:37) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to ARI 1 for no gain (22-K.Wallace, 52-V.Dimukeje).

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.34 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model