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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 34 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to ARI 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP