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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 63

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown. Penalty on ARI-63-T.Colon, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -1.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model