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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 32

Cincinnati Bengals 34 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.10 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 42, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EP