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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 8

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model