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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
Monday 2023-10-09 · 20:15 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

GB
51.2%
LV
48.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (LV): +0.189 EPA/dropback in prior starts (LV starting Jimmy Garoppolo in place of Aidan O'Connell)
  • LV offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • GB on 3 more days rest than LV
  • Jordan Love (GB): +0.009 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

GB 24
–
LV 23
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

GB

Zayne Anderson S Out Hamstring
De'Vondre Campbell LB Out Ankle
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Back
Rudy Ford S Questionable Oblique
Aaron Jones RB Questionable Hamstring
Eric Stokes CB Questionable Foot

LV

Nate Hobbs CB Out Ankle
Davante Adams WR Questionable Shoulder
Jakorian Bennett CB Questionable Hamstring
David Long CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 13
–
LV 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:41 FG GB (2:41) 17-A.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – LV 0
  • Q2 04:13 TD LV (4:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – LV 6
  • Q2 02:35 FG LV (2:35) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. GB 3 – LV 10
  • Q3 08:32 TD GB (8:32) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – LV 10
  • Q3 05:19 FG GB (5:19) 17-A.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 13 – LV 10
  • Q4 15:00 TD LV (15:00) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – LV 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%

    (10:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 39 yards to LV 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:37) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to GB 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (2:41) 17-A.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 43%

    (15:00) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to GB 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:45) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to LV 38, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-34-J.Owens.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 95%

    (5:24) 3-D.Carter left end to GB 13 for 3 yards (25-K.Nixon).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

    (2:35) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:07) 19-D.Whelan punts 54 yards to LV 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-D.Carter to LV 24 for 6 yards (34-J.Owens; 85-T.Kraft).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 72%

    (:12) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (73-Y.Nijman), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 83%

    (11:12) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to LV 26 for 3 yards (91-B.Nichols; 98-M.Crosby).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:27) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to GB 15, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-K.Nixon to GB 17 for 2 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (5:19) 17-A.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:10) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to GB 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:43) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to LV 33, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 74%

    (2:00) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.