Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Green Bay Packers 10

(7:27) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to GB 15, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-K.Nixon to GB 17 for 2 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.10 EP
58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model