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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 4

Green Bay Packers 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 17-A.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP