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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 52

Green Bay Packers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 39 yards to LV 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 52, worth -3.16 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model