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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 83

Green Bay Packers 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to LV 33, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.11 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 83, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 41, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model