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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.27 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model