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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 17-A.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model