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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 47

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to GB 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model